A Time for the People of Iran to Rise Against Their Regime

SITREP #11 (6-23)

The Iranian regime’s military and its capabilities as well as its vulnerabilities are not well understood by the average American and they need to be. The reason is because we find ourselves in a different place than we were merely 24 hours ago. Keep in mind, we've fought for two plus decades on both sides of Iran with very little strategic success. Iraq is likely controlled by Iran, and we retreated under fire from Afghanistan. We must figure out how to fight for peace and get out of these wars.

Our U.S. strategic position, given the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, and now with even more direct U.S. military involvement, changes the global equation. There are now direct threats here in the homeland and Americans abroad have been issued a travel advisory. 

Restating what I assess as necessary objectives for Israel to achieve are as follows:

1) An Iran with no nuclear weapons.

2) Regime change. If Khamenei stays in charge due to some negotiated peace deal, I personally don’t believe Israel can declare victory. Also, the declaration of “unconditional surrender” by POTUS will have to be further defined if Khamenei is still in charge when this war ends. True regime change MUST come from the people of Iran and a reminder that ANY regime change comes with massive challenges.

3) Defeating Iran’s surrogate forces. 

What follows are Iran’s capabilities and strengths:

They still possess a large military with approximately 610,000 active personnel and 350,000 reserves, providing significant numbers for defense and asymmetric operations.

Iran has an arsenal of over 3K ballistic missiles. The IRGC, with its Quds Force and proxies are still relatively operational and maintain a global presence for unconventional warfare operations, compensating for their conventional weaknesses.

More concerning is their indigenous defense industry. Given decades of sanctions, Iran was driven to a strategy of self-reliance, enabling them to produce drones, tanks, and naval assets, reducing dependence on foreign supplies.

Lastly, Iran has a clear and distinct geographic and population size advantage (~92M people). Its mountainous terrain and control over the Strait of Hormuz affords natural defenses and provides leverage to disrupt global oil flows. Even if it affects them, Iran would still seriously consider this act.

Iran also has clear vulnerabilities, especially given the military actions by Israel against their regional surrogate forces, but those organizations are not yet fully defeated.

Iran’s biggest military weakness is that some of their conventional forces are outdated. For instance, their air force relies on aging aircraft and lacks modern technology, while their tanks and naval vessels are largely obsolete. Israel has so degraded Iran’s air defense system, it now appears to have air supremacy of the skies over Iran. Economic sanctions and economic challenges limit funding for any upgrades or modernization of their military equipment. Additional economic strains on Iran will have a direct impact on their military operations. Losses of allies such as the Assad regime in Syria have weakened Iran’s regional network, reducing its strategic depth. Finally, the advanced technology gap compared to the U.S., Israel, and some European militaries is abysmal with its forces lacking advanced command and control and early warning systems, and other cutting-edge weaponry.

These and other factors suggest that if the Iranian regime survives, it will rely heavily on a strategic defense, in depth and asymmetric tactics (regionally and globally). Even though its conventional capabilities are strained given current military pressures, powers like China and Russia appear to be stepping in to offer their diplomatic and other support. If there were ever an opportunity in recent history for the people of Iran to rise against their regime, now is the time.