There has been a lot of discussion on regime change given the war between Israel and Iran. What does it mean, what are the challenges and what are the consequences?
I personally don’t believe the U.S. can deal with a fanatic Iranian regime screaming “death to America” whose people live as though they have a boot on their throat. HOWEVER, it is the people of Iran that have to decide how to get that boot off their throat.
If they find it in them, America will be their best friend on all issues surrounding geo-politics (ie., opening trade, military to military relationships, even likely reopening our embassy which was destroyed and Americans held hostage).
Anyway, this is more of an FYI than a call to action but it’s clear our track record for regime change is poor.
Feedback appreciated.
Regime change summary statistics (U.S. executed regime changes since the Iran regime change in 1953 to the most recent Syria regime change):
Total Regime Change Attempts: ~72
Successful Regime Changes: ~26 (~36% success rate)
Failed Attempts: ~46
Involving War or Military Force: ~16
Involving Assassination Attempts: ~10+
Involving Bribery/Election Meddling: ~30+
Likely Illegal under U.S. Law Today: ~20+
Major sources:
1. Lindsey A. O'Rourke, "Covert Regime Change: America's Secret Cold War" (2018)
2. William Blum, "Killing Hope"
3. Stephen Kinzer, "Overthrow"
4. U.S. Senate Church Committee Report (1975)
Declassified CIA documents and the FRUS series.
SIR: Some observations. First and foremost, the war between Israel and Iran is a religious war. The radical Islamic world versus the Judeo-Christian world. No one seems to want to discuss that fact. Iran transitioned into a theocracy following the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Everything the Iranian government does is guided by their Islamic beliefs. Jews and Muslims have been killing each other for centuries. The other issue is that Islam's history demonstrates it is a political religion. They envision that Islamic principles and laws will be implemented and influence society globally. That's also what Fascism and Communism envisioned. Just look at what's happened to London in the UK with a Muslim mayor. That's where NYC is headed. As for Iranian regime change, it would need to keep the theocratic structure and so must come from within - perhaps Sunni v Shia? I believe President Trump understands those issues and it is why he hasn't pursued regime change. The great thing he did is prevent Islamic religious fanatics from having nuclear weapons. Can you imagine millions being incinerated in the name of Allah?
Trump is correct: regime needs to go. But unlike past administrations, there will be no C-eye-Aye dirty regime change by Trump. The Persian people will do it.