The Israeli Campaign and its Effectiveness

AMERICA HAS MUCH AT STAKE

ATTENTION!

Israel struck Iran with a surprise attack on 12 June. There have been many reports out regarding the actions, reactions, and counteractions, all components of this war. The following is an assessment of the Israeli campaign and its effectiveness. America has a lot at stake here, never mind gaining or losing more prestige on the world stage. Let's face it, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq did us no favors.

It is now clear Israel’s campaign consists of at least four phases:

1. The initial surprise attack with a continuing series of airstrikes.

2. Expected Iranian retaliation by Israel.

3. Israel sustained operations

4. Plans for and execution of escalation operations.

The evidence leans toward Israel achieving massive tactical successes, but strategic goals remain incomplete and there is controversy over the extent of damage to Iran’s nuclear program and U.S. involvement.

Phases & Performance:

Overall: Israel’s campaign against Iran, appears to be progressing through multiple phases, each with varying levels of success.

Airstrike Phase: Israel launched a well-planned and coordinated airstrike targeting Iran’s nuclear sites like Natanz and Fordow, military installations, and key personnel, including top generals and nuclear scientists.

Performance: I assess this phase as highly effective, achieving air superiority and destroying over 130 strategic targets, including command centers and missile factories, within 48 hours.

Iran’s Retaliation Phase (clearly considered and prepared for by Israel): Iran responded with at least 10 waves of missile strikes and drone attacks, hitting Israeli sites such as a hospital and oil refinery, causing civilian casualties.

Performance: Iran’s efforts were largely ineffective, with about 90% of attacks intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome and U.S. systems, limiting damage despite some civilian impact.

Sustained Operations Phase: Israel is continuing to target specific Iranian assets, focusing on remaining nuclear facilities and high-value individuals, with ongoing operations as of the past 24 hrs.

Performance: I assess Israel is achieving mixed results. They are degrading Iran’s capabilities, key sites like Fordow appear to remain intact, requiring further action.

Escalatory Phase: There is a growing possibility of U.S. involvement, especially to target hardened sites like Fordow, which could significantly escalate the conflict and bring in other global and nuclear capable nations aligned against each other.

Performance: Uncertain at this phase due to required decisions from President Trump. There does not appear to be an American appetite for “boots on the ground” (rightly so in my judgement) and there is no apparent direct military action that can be confirmed at this stage, but there is significant support being provided.

Assessment: Israel has shown superior tactical dominance, an exquisite level of intelligence collection and targeting prowess (to be admired by warriors of this profession), BUT fully dismantling Iran’s nuclear program remains a massive challenge.

Bottom Line: The conflict will continue for many more weeks unless there is a cease fire of some sort agreed to and there remains clear potential for an even broader escalation.

My assessment, given the “unconditional surrender” call by our President, for success to be achieved, there will have to be a MINIMUM of three outcomes:

1. NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS.

2. New Iranian leadership (preferably chosen by the Iranian people).

3. ALL Iranian proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) to be completely dismantled or, at least, severely diminished with no further support of any kind by Iran.

This has been an incredibly complex conflict with both tactical wins and select strategic uncertainties shaping its future. I guarantee the world is closely monitoring all military actions, diplomatic efforts, and international responses. For those who care about America’s Future, it will be crucial to understanding the various antagonists as well as the world’s responses as things further evolve (or erode).