Today's SITREP
The Benefits and Risks for China Regarding the Israel-Iran Conflict
Given the Irael-Iran conflict, I created SITREPs for those wishing to follow my thought process. I’ll adjust and I won’t always get it right. It is my thinking, nonetheless.
Today’s focus: China’s benefits and risks.
Because of this conflict, China’s benefits, are primarily strategic and indirect, rooted in its broader geopolitical and economic interests.
Below are the specific ways China gains:
1. The conflict weakens U.S. Influence in the Middle East. It diverts U.S. attention and resources from Asia, where China faces pressure over Taiwan and the South China Sea. By keeping the U.S. entangled in Middle Eastern crisis, China gains breathing room to pursue its Indo-Pacific regional ambitions with less interference.
2. If there is no regime change in Iran, it will strengthen ties with China. China’s close relationship with Iran, cemented by a 25-year cooperation agreement beginning in 2021, is bolstered by the conflict. Iran, increasingly isolated, relies on China as its primary buyer of sanctioned oil (over 90% of Iran’s crude exports go to China). This secures China a discounted energy supply, critical for its economy, while giving Beijing leverage over Tehran. China also benefits by its diplomatic voice while not having to commit military forces (yet).
3. The conflict enhances China’s regional diplomatic clout. China is using the conflict to project itself as a neutral and global peacemaker, contrasting with the U.S.’s perceived bias toward Israel. By condemning Israel’s actions and calling for de-escalation, China appeals to Arab states and the Global Asian South, boosting its image as a champion of non-Western interests. Its mediation efforts, like the Saudi-Iran rapprochement in 2023, gain China credibility, potentially expanding their influence deeper into Middle Eastern diplomacy.
4. China will take advantage of economic opportunities because of the instability. Due to the regional instability, China benefits by disrupting U.S.-aligned trade routes (e.g., through the Suez Canal or Bab Al-Mandab Strait), increasing reliance on China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure. However, China prefers “controlled instability”, as a full-scale war could threaten its Middle Eastern oil imports (nearly half its supply) along with many of its BRI projects.
5. China’s keen observation of all military engagements, particularly missile and drone performance, will help to refine their own defense strategies. Iranian weapons, often incorporating Chinese components or designs, provide real-world testing data. A prolonged conflict could also weaken Israel’s technological edge, reducing its ability to counter Chinese tech investments in the region.
6. By supporting Iran, China indirectly backs Iran’s proxies (e.g., Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis), which challenge Israel and U.S. short- and long-term interests. This low-cost strategy allows China to pressure Western powers without direct confrontation, aligning with its non-interventionist policy. There are many who correctly suggest China supplies weapons components to Iran and its proxies, further amplifying its influence.
These benefits are not without significant risks.
A broader regional war will disrupt China’s energy security and BRI investments, which rely on Middle Eastern stability. Additionally, China’s pro-Iran stance strains relations with Israel, a key technology partner, potentially limiting access to Israel’s innovation. Beijing’s difficult balancing act—maintaining ties with both Iran and Israel—requires careful diplomacy to avoid alienating either side. The administration needs to pay close attention here.
Conclusion: China benefits by leveraging the conflict to undermine U.S. dominance, secure cheap oil, enhance its diplomatic stature, and gain military insights, all while maintaining a low-risk, non-interventionist stance. However, these gains depend on the conflict remaining contained, as escalation will jeopardize China’s fragile economy and other geopolitical interests and alliances.
Feedback is important.
General Flynn goes above and beyond with his extraordinary assessment based on expertise, experience, and foresight. A very stark look at the axis of evil and its motives. We need to stay serious and vigilant. I hope President Trump is getting the best advice possible from the right people in important positions. Thank you for keeping the American people informed.
EXCELLENT model General Flynn, my very respectful and humble comment/suggestion. If it has not been done yet, is to input in your model the following assumptions, and evaluate results.
Israel’s decision to destroy Iran’s nuclear (bomb making) infrastructure and the possibility of a regime change in Iran, if successful, will hurt China’s BRI modus operandi.
If successful, the Iranian (Persian) society will look to the West as a model for development and growth, as most of the Arab nations are doing now, stability should follow, and oil revenue could could support the construction of a new Iran.
China (CCCP), needs vasts amounts of energy to fuel their economy, the less clout they have over oil and gas producing countries in the Middle East and Latin America (Venezuela) their BRI will start to loosen up.
That leaves Russia, they would have the following choice to make: sell to Western Europe or sell to China. The outcome from the Ukrainian war, diplomacy and geopolitics could help drive that decision to look West as they will also need to rebuild their economy, unless the China tries and succeeds in implementing a BRI around the Russian bear.